1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	312059	Zero Leader	Current	84	8.73	5.61	3.07
			Estimated	200	7.96	5.75	2.87

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Zero Leader is based on the Corsair Leader game, with some significant changes. The game focuses on commanding and managing a Japanese aerial squadron in the Pacific in World War Two, with aircraft including the A6M2 Zero, KI-84 Frank, KI-43 Oscar, G4M Betty, and G3M Nell, covering the major campaigns throughout the war from 1941 to 1945. You will need to select the right mix of aircraft under your command in order to successfully carry out the different types of missions. Each aircraft has its advantages and disadvantages. For example, a fighter like the Zero is very maneuverable and deadly to enemy Bandits, but it has limited ability to attack naval and ground targets, whereas a bomber like the Betty can carry a lot of munitions, but are susceptible to enemy bandit and anti-aircraft attacks. This game also includes additional aspects of Japanese operations such as mechanical and maintenance challenges, invoking samurai spirit, as well as the ability to deploy the deadly Ohka kamikaze aircraft-bombs. There is also an air combat system which gives you more tactical options when dogfighting with enemy aircraft, including manuevering for position, increasing pilot aggression and being affected by the robustness of the aircraft. Like the other games in the "Leader" series, Zero Leader is a solitaire game. Included in the core box: 1 x Mounted Display 20"x15" 1 x Mounted Dogfight Chart 11 x Counter Sheets (88 counters per sheet) 15 x Campaign Sheets 4 x Player Help Sheets 2 x single-sided sheets 2 x double-sided sheets 386 x Cards (2.5” x 3.5”) 18 x Frank aircraft cards 36 x Zero aircraft cards 36 x Zeke aircraft cards 18 x Kate aircraft cards 18 x Jill aircraft cards 18 x Val aircraft cards 18 x Emily aircraft cards 18 x Jack aircraft cards 18 x Tojo aircraft cards 18 x Sonia aircraft cards 18 x Tony aircraft cards 18 x George aircraft cards 18 x Oscar aircraft cards 18 x Betty aircraft cards 18 x Nell aircraft cards 5 x Frank "Trainee" aircraft cards 30 x Event cards 45 x Target cards 2 x 10-sided Dice 1 x Player Log Sheet 1 x Rulebook -description from publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/312059

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Zero Leader? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Zero Leader. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Zero Leader. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	312059	Zero Leader	1.00	5.61	8.73	2.87	84
1	1986	8756	Eastern Front Solitaire	0.97	5.52	5.99	2.50	87
2	2019	139433	Fields of Fire 2	0.97	5.70	8.18	4.60	174
3	1986	8461	First Team: Vietnam	0.96	5.53	6.34	3.09	70
4	2010	41490	Phantom Leader	0.96	5.90	7.46	2.60	485
5	2008	28829	Field Commander: Rommel	0.96	6.02	7.00	2.46	1,004
6	2011	42673	Field Commander: Napoleon	0.96	6.25	7.72	2.80	970
7	2018	242227	Nightfighter Ace: Air Defense Over Germany, 1943-44	0.96	5.75	8.24	2.26	238
8	2012	124199	Raid sur Bruneval 1942	0.96	5.51	6.23	1.55	33
9	2011	99130	Dawn of the Zeds	0.95	5.64	7.40	2.64	151
10	2020	300591	Target for Tonight: Britain's Strategic Air Campaign Over Europe, 1942-1945	0.94	5.59	7.90	3.33	94
11	2018	258184	The Battle for Ramadi	0.94	5.53	7.01	2.40	37
12	2015	67601	D-Day at Peleliu	0.94	5.83	8.27	4.00	284
13	2019	269456	Interceptor Ace: Daylight Air Defense Over Germany, 1943-44	0.94	5.68	8.23	2.50	159
14	2014	105023	Fleet Commander: Nimitz – The WWII Pacific Ocean Solitaire Strategy Game	0.94	5.64	6.89	2.58	247
15	2002	16826	Barbarossa Solitaire	0.94	5.51	6.22	1.75	31
16	1974	6946	Wolfpack: Submarine Warfare in the North Atlantic, 1942-44	0.94	5.56	6.28	2.54	192
17	2012	123955	Thunderbolt Apache Leader	0.94	6.50	8.04	3.22	1,222
18	2008	22877	Fields of Fire	0.94	6.37	7.85	4.23	1,194
19	2019	214234	Tank Duel: Enemy in the Crosshairs	0.94	6.05	7.71	2.77	643
20	2020	174959	The First Jihad: The Rise of Islam 632-750	0.94	5.55	7.38	3.60	65
21	2014	67600	D-Day at Tarawa	0.94	5.96	8.24	3.67	396
22	2018	217609	The Wars of Marcus Aurelius	0.93	5.69	7.58	2.60	194
23	1985	4413	Star Trek III	0.93	5.53	6.13	2.29	113
24	2005	20734	Corsair Leader	0.93	5.72	7.64	2.43	238
25	1989	3594	Star Wars: Battle for Endor	0.93	5.55	6.15	2.15	164

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Zero Leader while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	312059	Zero Leader	5.61	1.00	5.61	8.73	2.87	84
1	2012	123955	Thunderbolt Apache Leader	6.11	0.94	6.50	8.04	3.22	1,222
2	2011	42673	Field Commander: Napoleon	5.99	0.96	6.25	7.72	2.80	970
3	2008	22877	Fields of Fire	5.97	0.94	6.37	7.85	4.23	1,194
4	2013	102435	Navajo Wars	5.87	0.93	6.34	7.96	3.86	933
5	2008	28829	Field Commander: Rommel	5.77	0.96	6.02	7.00	2.46	1,004
6	2019	214234	Tank Duel: Enemy in the Crosshairs	5.67	0.94	6.05	7.71	2.77	643
7	2010	41490	Phantom Leader	5.66	0.96	5.90	7.46	2.60	485
8	2010	65564	Hornet Leader: Carrier Air Operations	5.61	0.90	6.22	7.88	2.85	857
9	2014	67600	D-Day at Tarawa	5.57	0.94	5.96	8.24	3.67	396
10	2010	84465	Ottoman Sunset: The Great War in the Near East	5.54	0.93	5.98	7.34	2.00	657
11	2009	35350	Field Commander: Alexander	5.51	0.92	6.00	7.10	2.32	842
12	2019	139433	Fields of Fire 2	5.51	0.97	5.70	8.18	4.60	174
13	2015	67601	D-Day at Peleliu	5.50	0.94	5.83	8.27	4.00	284
14	2018	242227	Nightfighter Ace: Air Defense Over Germany, 1943-44	5.50	0.96	5.75	8.24	2.26	238
15	2013	134520	Phantom Leader Deluxe	5.46	0.91	6.00	8.06	2.65	490
16	2013	144568	Dawn of the Zeds (Second edition)	5.40	0.88	6.12	7.86	3.17	648
17	2013	70519	Cruel Necessity: The English Civil Wars 1640-1653	5.40	0.89	6.03	7.44	2.81	710
18	2009	41627	Zulus on the Ramparts!: The Battle of Rorke's Drift – Second Edition	5.38	0.88	6.11	7.36	2.12	918
19	2016	154875	Silent Victory: U.S. Submarines in the Pacific, 1941-45	5.35	0.87	6.13	8.02	2.84	737
20	2019	269456	Interceptor Ace: Daylight Air Defense Over Germany, 1943-44	5.35	0.94	5.68	8.23	2.50	159
21	2020	237860	The Shores of Tripoli	5.34	0.90	5.95	7.88	2.14	522
22	2009	35614	Where There Is Discord: War in the South Atlantic	5.33	0.90	5.93	7.91	3.11	411
23	2011	99130	Dawn of the Zeds	5.33	0.95	5.64	7.40	2.64	151
24	1986	8756	Eastern Front Solitaire	5.33	0.97	5.52	5.99	2.50	87
25	1986	8461	First Team: Vietnam	5.32	0.96	5.53	6.34	3.09	70

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

## Warning in abbreviate(neighbor_name, 60): abbreviate used with non-ASCII chars

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	312059	Zero Leader	Dan Verssen Games (DVG)	Chuck Seegert		Aviation / Flight	Country: Japan	Campaign / Battle Card Driven
						Card Game	Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Deck Construction
						Wargame	Players: Solitaire Only Games	Simulation
						World War II	Players: Solitaire Only Wargames	Solo / Solitaire Game
							Players: Wargames with Solitaire Rules
							Series: Leader (DVG)

Individual Game Analysis